Long-term scenarios International/National
March 13-14, 2024

Summary

In his presentation on long-term energy scenarios, Dr. Frank Sensfuß discusses the critical role of mathematical optimization in achieving climate protection goals for the Federal Ministry for Economy in Germany. He emphasizes the necessity of modeling and scientific policy advice in addressing uncertainty and outlines the comprehensive approach his team takes in evaluating various pathways to decarbonization.

To gain deeper insights and access exclusive content, we encourage you to fill out the form and unlock more valuable information.

Challenges

The primary challenge faced by Dr. Sensfuß and his team is the inherent uncertainty in predicting the most effective methods for achieving climate protection. Traditional approaches using single “lighthouse scenarios” have proven inadequate, necessitating a broader exploration of multiple scenarios, including those focused on electricity, hydrogen, and hydrocarbons. The urgency of climate science further complicates their work, especially as Germany targets full carbon neutrality by 2045. This ambitious goal demands high shares of renewables, new energy carriers, and effective carbon management, all of which are influenced by global trade and weather variability.

Solution

To tackle these challenges, Dr. Sensfuß’s team employs a detailed bottom-up modeling approach, integrating demand projections from various sectors into a large linear optimization model known as the NATO model. This model, with its intricate linkages to electricity and gas grid models, enables a high-resolution analysis of the entire energy system. Optimization is crucial in this context, as it helps identify the most cost-effective pathways and manage the complex interactions within the energy system. The team’s switch from agent-based modeling to optimization reflects their need for precise and reliable policy advice in the face of an increasingly complex energy landscape.

Results

The modeling results reveal significant insights into the future of energy in Europe. For instance, Germany’s high energy demand necessitates substantial energy imports, primarily from Spain, the Balkan regions, the UK, and Scandinavia. These imports are facilitated by robust electricity and hydrogen trading networks. Within Germany, regional energy trade, especially from the north to the south, highlights the importance of grid flexibility and storage solutions. The need for substantial heat and hydrogen storage is underscored, given the mismatch between renewable energy production (mainly in summer) and peak demand (often in winter).